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Solving the Regression to the Mean Problem
According to Kevin Hogan’s The Millionaire Mind: A millionaire is someone whose net worth
is $1,000,000 or more. There are 8 million households in the United States (out of 111
million) that are worth that magic number. Just under 8% of all families are millionaires.
Regression to the mean implies that a pair of smart people has more difficulty giving birth to a
baby as smart as they are than an average IQ couple does. In other words, a man with an IQ of
100 and a woman with an IQ of 100 will likely give birth to children whose IQ averages about
100. On the other hand, a man with an IQ of 180 and a woman with an IQ of 180 will give
birth to children whose IQs average significantly less than 180, but significantly more than
100.
Mathematical reason:
Given two variables X and Y with mean 0, common variance 1, and correlation coefficient r,
the expected value of Y given that the value of X was measured to be x is equal to rx, which is
closer to the mean 0 than x since |r| < 1. If the variances of the two variable X and Y are
different, and one measures the variables in "normalized units" of standard deviations, then
the principle of regression toward the mean also holds true.
This example illustrates a general fact: regression toward the mean is the more pronounced
the less the two variables are correlated, i.e. the smaller |r| is.
It was this effect that caused the eugenics movement to fail.
Regression to the mean also presents a problem to any rich person who would like to leave his
empire to his son or daughter. The sons of Ford are not as intelligent as Ford and the
corporation suffers after the death of the founder. The sons and grandchildren of Galvin
cannot maintain Motorola as well as the founder or a clone of the founder could have. George
W. Bush is not as smart as his father. Al Gore, Junior is not as smart as Al Gore, Senior. The
solution to this problem is for the high IQ couple to have the lab produce 1000 fertilized eggs
and then select those eggs which will lead to the birth of babies with an IQ at least as high as
theirs.
This process is occurring now but its extent is not yet public knowledge.
Each year the practice will become more widespread.
If one fourth of the current number of American millionaires each have three children, that
would yield 6 million very bright kids. It is already starting to happen.
Perhaps we should not call this a rebirth of the eugenics movement, lest people associated it
with the earlier scientifically incorrect version of the movement. What should we call this
new movement with more science behind it?
How do you feel about this new trend toward human breeding? Should I contribute money to
accelerate this trend?
Yes
No
Next question
Solving the Regression to the Mean Problem
According to Kevin Hogan’s The Millionaire Mind: A millionaire is someone whose net worth
is $1,000,000 or more. There are 8 million households in the United States (out of 111
million) that are worth that magic number. Just under 8% of all families are millionaires.
Regression to the mean implies that a pair of smart people has more difficulty giving birth to a
baby as smart as they are than an average IQ couple does. In other words, a man with an IQ of
100 and a woman with an IQ of 100 will likely give birth to children whose IQ averages about
100. On the other hand, a man with an IQ of 180 and a woman with an IQ of 180 will give
birth to children whose IQs average significantly less than 180, but significantly more than
100.
Mathematical reason:
Given two variables X and Y with mean 0, common variance 1, and correlation coefficient r,
the expected value of Y given that the value of X was measured to be x is equal to rx, which is
closer to the mean 0 than x since |r| < 1. If the variances of the two variable X and Y are
different, and one measures the variables in "normalized units" of standard deviations, then
the principle of regression toward the mean also holds true.
This example illustrates a general fact: regression toward the mean is the more pronounced
the less the two variables are correlated, i.e. the smaller |r| is.
It was this effect that caused the eugenics movement to fail.
Regression to the mean also presents a problem to any rich person who would like to leave his
empire to his son or daughter. The sons of Ford are not as intelligent as Ford and the
corporation suffers after the death of the founder. The sons and grandchildren of Galvin
cannot maintain Motorola as well as the founder or a clone of the founder could have. George
W. Bush is not as smart as his father. Al Gore, Junior is not as smart as Al Gore, Senior. The
solution to this problem is for the high IQ couple to have the lab produce 1000 fertilized eggs
and then select those eggs which will lead to the birth of babies with an IQ at least as high as
theirs.
This process is occurring now but its extent is not yet public knowledge.
Each year the practice will become more widespread.
If one fourth of the current number of American millionaires each have three children, that
would yield 6 million very bright kids. It is already starting to happen.
Perhaps we should not call this a rebirth of the eugenics movement, lest people associated it
with the earlier scientifically incorrect version of the movement. What should we call this
new movement with more science behind it?
How do you feel about this new trend toward human breeding? Should I contribute money to
accelerate this trend?
Yes
No
Next question
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