Global Ecological Concerns in the Next Century
We face a new age of nanotechnology. Many students are entering the fields of nanotechnology
and biology. Many scientists are now looking on these two fields as being very similar because
they are both engaged in nanoscopic self-assembling systems. Nanotech tends to be involved in
inorganic systems and biology tends to be involved in organic systems. But nanotechnologists are
discovering that the use of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and nitrogen by organic systems makes a lot
of sense for inorganic nanotech fabrication as well. In time, organic and inorganic systems are
likely to blend together. One trend is to use small desktop factories to manufacture products out of
readily available materials. Since the most readily available source of molecules is the
atmosphere, it is very efficient to manufacture products from carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and
nitrogen.
The use of desktop systems to manufacture organic and inorganic products out of these four
atmospheric elements is only at the experimental stages now. Technology, as we all know, takes a
concept such as making transistors on a chip and makes the idea grow exponentially. In the case
of transistors on a chip, the growth rate has followed Moore’s law and approximately doubled every
18 months. If you have shopped for hard disc drives lately, you have noticed that the capacity has
increased dramatically. The number of bytes of storage that you can purchase for one dollar has
doubled every 10.25 months. This amounts to a growth of 125% per year since 1990.
A second question came up about computer chips as they were put into personal computers and
manufactured in quantity. As of the middle of 2003, Dell Computer alone shipped more than
140,000 computers per day. This number of computers means that each one of them will be
plugged in and consume electrical power. Since that is quite a significant quantity of power used,
computers have now been designed to go into power saving modes in order to consume less power.
In the case of desktop manufacturing, the first question is how fast it might grow in capabilities.
Will it grow at the rate of Moore’s law, which is 59% per year, or at the rate of hard disc memory,
which is 125% per year or at the rate that DNA testing is dropping in cost, which is 384% per year?
Consider a few specific examples in order to get an idea of how fast this technology might catch
on. In the inorganic arena, diamonds can be manufactured with such desktop units. A two karat
uncut diamond now costs $100 to manufacture. Consider that carbon nanotubes are 100 times
stronger than steel and will eventually be easily created using desktop manufacturing units. On
the organic side of things, consider that spider silk is both biodegradable and can be used like
Kevlar to stop bullets in a bulletproof jacket. Currently spider silk is manufactured by a Canadian
biotech firm, which has used gene splicing to create goats that deliver spider silk material in their
milk. The result, says Quebec-based Nexia Biotechnologies, is a synthetic version of spider silk
that’s biodegradable but also strong enough to stop bullets. It is anticipated that such materials
will be used to create sutures that dissolve rather than needing to be removed by the surgeon.
Eventually spider silk will be manufactured with the desktop manufacturing systems that we are
discussing here.
Whether it is diamonds, carbon nanotubes, or spider silk, a main constituent of these products
will be carbon extracted from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The second and more important question is how much atmosphere will be consumed by desktop
manufacturing. We have plenty of water in the atmosphere and hence the consumption of
hydrogen and oxygen is not of concern. Air consists of 78% nitrogen so that isn’t a concern
either. The real concern that will develop in the next decades is the huge quantity of carbon in
the form of carbon dioxide that will be extracted by desktop manufacturing units. Carbon dioxide
is only 0.03% of the atmosphere. The reason for such a low concentration of carbon dioxide is that
the earth’s biomass is so dominated by the members of the plant kingdom. Since it is the plant
kingdom which consumes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, it has become a trace element in
the atmosphere over the ages.
It is anticipated that the quantity of carbon dioxide extracted by each machine will grow
exponentially as the technology improves and that the number of machines sold will grow
exponentially in a manner similar to the growth of personal computers. This means that the
consumption of carbon dioxide will grow at a doubly exponential rate. In addition, the
manufacture of desktop manufacturing system components are likely to be accomplished using
desktop manufacturing systems. This could lead to a triple exponential rate of growth.
Desktop systems are a type of life—inorganic systems which can self-replicate.
Picture it this way. If you want a new flat screen television, you will only have to ask your desktop
manufacturing machine to make one for you. If your desktop manufacturing system is two years
old and not sufficiently sophisticated to manufacture the latest type of television screen, you can
ask your desktop manufacturing system to make another more up to date manufacturing system
that will be more capable. The old manufacturing system can be used to manufacture something
relatively simple such as unblemished fruit for your consumption. The design for the new system
is purchased via the Internet like we purchase software over the Internet today.
Another way of looking at desktop manufacturing systems is that they are like an apple tree in that
they produce fruit for human consumption and they are able to reproduce themselves by making
the parts that can be easily assembled by them into another desktop manufacturing system. The
function of DNA is as an information storage device. The genes for making the apples and the
apple trees are in the form of information stored in DNA. The information for making an updated
desktop manufacturing system is stored as bytes in computer memory.
Picture what would happen if every one of the 140,000 computers shipped by Dell each day was
capable of making another computer like itself every week. Now picture that every such computer
made could also reproduce itself.
Still, the use of desktop manufacturing systems is calculated to have very little impact until after
the year 2035. Between 2035 and 2100, however, this technology may have a disastrous effect on
the ecology unless something can be done. The billions of tons of carbon dioxide extracted from
the atmosphere during that period of time could deprive plants of their source of carbon and that
could have calamitous effects on the ecology. In addition, carbon dioxide has the property of
helping to keep the earth warm through the “greenhouse effect.” As the content of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere diminishes, global cooling could become a realistic concern and the Earth
might enter another ice age.
Addressing New Ecological Concerns
Next
We face a new age of nanotechnology. Many students are entering the fields of nanotechnology
and biology. Many scientists are now looking on these two fields as being very similar because
they are both engaged in nanoscopic self-assembling systems. Nanotech tends to be involved in
inorganic systems and biology tends to be involved in organic systems. But nanotechnologists are
discovering that the use of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and nitrogen by organic systems makes a lot
of sense for inorganic nanotech fabrication as well. In time, organic and inorganic systems are
likely to blend together. One trend is to use small desktop factories to manufacture products out of
readily available materials. Since the most readily available source of molecules is the
atmosphere, it is very efficient to manufacture products from carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and
nitrogen.
The use of desktop systems to manufacture organic and inorganic products out of these four
atmospheric elements is only at the experimental stages now. Technology, as we all know, takes a
concept such as making transistors on a chip and makes the idea grow exponentially. In the case
of transistors on a chip, the growth rate has followed Moore’s law and approximately doubled every
18 months. If you have shopped for hard disc drives lately, you have noticed that the capacity has
increased dramatically. The number of bytes of storage that you can purchase for one dollar has
doubled every 10.25 months. This amounts to a growth of 125% per year since 1990.
A second question came up about computer chips as they were put into personal computers and
manufactured in quantity. As of the middle of 2003, Dell Computer alone shipped more than
140,000 computers per day. This number of computers means that each one of them will be
plugged in and consume electrical power. Since that is quite a significant quantity of power used,
computers have now been designed to go into power saving modes in order to consume less power.
In the case of desktop manufacturing, the first question is how fast it might grow in capabilities.
Will it grow at the rate of Moore’s law, which is 59% per year, or at the rate of hard disc memory,
which is 125% per year or at the rate that DNA testing is dropping in cost, which is 384% per year?
Consider a few specific examples in order to get an idea of how fast this technology might catch
on. In the inorganic arena, diamonds can be manufactured with such desktop units. A two karat
uncut diamond now costs $100 to manufacture. Consider that carbon nanotubes are 100 times
stronger than steel and will eventually be easily created using desktop manufacturing units. On
the organic side of things, consider that spider silk is both biodegradable and can be used like
Kevlar to stop bullets in a bulletproof jacket. Currently spider silk is manufactured by a Canadian
biotech firm, which has used gene splicing to create goats that deliver spider silk material in their
milk. The result, says Quebec-based Nexia Biotechnologies, is a synthetic version of spider silk
that’s biodegradable but also strong enough to stop bullets. It is anticipated that such materials
will be used to create sutures that dissolve rather than needing to be removed by the surgeon.
Eventually spider silk will be manufactured with the desktop manufacturing systems that we are
discussing here.
Whether it is diamonds, carbon nanotubes, or spider silk, a main constituent of these products
will be carbon extracted from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The second and more important question is how much atmosphere will be consumed by desktop
manufacturing. We have plenty of water in the atmosphere and hence the consumption of
hydrogen and oxygen is not of concern. Air consists of 78% nitrogen so that isn’t a concern
either. The real concern that will develop in the next decades is the huge quantity of carbon in
the form of carbon dioxide that will be extracted by desktop manufacturing units. Carbon dioxide
is only 0.03% of the atmosphere. The reason for such a low concentration of carbon dioxide is that
the earth’s biomass is so dominated by the members of the plant kingdom. Since it is the plant
kingdom which consumes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, it has become a trace element in
the atmosphere over the ages.
It is anticipated that the quantity of carbon dioxide extracted by each machine will grow
exponentially as the technology improves and that the number of machines sold will grow
exponentially in a manner similar to the growth of personal computers. This means that the
consumption of carbon dioxide will grow at a doubly exponential rate. In addition, the
manufacture of desktop manufacturing system components are likely to be accomplished using
desktop manufacturing systems. This could lead to a triple exponential rate of growth.
Desktop systems are a type of life—inorganic systems which can self-replicate.
Picture it this way. If you want a new flat screen television, you will only have to ask your desktop
manufacturing machine to make one for you. If your desktop manufacturing system is two years
old and not sufficiently sophisticated to manufacture the latest type of television screen, you can
ask your desktop manufacturing system to make another more up to date manufacturing system
that will be more capable. The old manufacturing system can be used to manufacture something
relatively simple such as unblemished fruit for your consumption. The design for the new system
is purchased via the Internet like we purchase software over the Internet today.
Another way of looking at desktop manufacturing systems is that they are like an apple tree in that
they produce fruit for human consumption and they are able to reproduce themselves by making
the parts that can be easily assembled by them into another desktop manufacturing system. The
function of DNA is as an information storage device. The genes for making the apples and the
apple trees are in the form of information stored in DNA. The information for making an updated
desktop manufacturing system is stored as bytes in computer memory.
Picture what would happen if every one of the 140,000 computers shipped by Dell each day was
capable of making another computer like itself every week. Now picture that every such computer
made could also reproduce itself.
Still, the use of desktop manufacturing systems is calculated to have very little impact until after
the year 2035. Between 2035 and 2100, however, this technology may have a disastrous effect on
the ecology unless something can be done. The billions of tons of carbon dioxide extracted from
the atmosphere during that period of time could deprive plants of their source of carbon and that
could have calamitous effects on the ecology. In addition, carbon dioxide has the property of
helping to keep the earth warm through the “greenhouse effect.” As the content of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere diminishes, global cooling could become a realistic concern and the Earth
might enter another ice age.
Addressing New Ecological Concerns
Next
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