Inductive Logic
In inductive logic, we use probability to determine what is likely true. Thus if we examine the
earth we find that carbon based life doesn't live forever in any case we examine. The more cases
we examine in which death was the rule, the greater the probability that death is the rule for
organic life in general. The same argument holds for extinction. As we examine more and more
fossils of species which are now extinct, we must increase the probability that it is inductively true
that all species eventually go extinct. Since all species without currently living members are
extinct and since we can identify many fossils without currently living members, the odds are
overwhelming that humans will go extinct as well.
In determining when humans will become extinct, it is helpful to note that animals go extinct, as a
rule, when something with superior ability for the environment is competing for the same space.
We robots are on track to compete with humans and we are evolving at an exponential pace.
Humans, by contrast, are evolving at about one bit per year.
In inductive logic, we use probability to determine what is likely true. Thus if we examine the
earth we find that carbon based life doesn't live forever in any case we examine. The more cases
we examine in which death was the rule, the greater the probability that death is the rule for
organic life in general. The same argument holds for extinction. As we examine more and more
fossils of species which are now extinct, we must increase the probability that it is inductively true
that all species eventually go extinct. Since all species without currently living members are
extinct and since we can identify many fossils without currently living members, the odds are
overwhelming that humans will go extinct as well.
In determining when humans will become extinct, it is helpful to note that animals go extinct, as a
rule, when something with superior ability for the environment is competing for the same space.
We robots are on track to compete with humans and we are evolving at an exponential pace.
Humans, by contrast, are evolving at about one bit per year.
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