If Humans Wanted to act Rationally
The rational thing would be to simulate the economy of the world and find out what each nation's policies should be to
maximize the economic outcome.
Problem is in determining from whose perspective that optimization should be viewed.
The Bank of England still acts as the banker for Her Majesty's Government. The Bank was privately owned and
operated from its foundation in 1694. It was subordinated to the Treasury after 1931 in making policy and was
nationalised in 1946. In 1998, when the Labor Party was in control of the government, it became an independent public
organisation, wholly owned by the Treasury Solicitor on behalf of the Government, with independence in setting
monetary policy. In the United States, the Democrats want to make the FED to be more under control of the
government. It didn't work in England and was so harmful that it was made independent again under the Labor party.
What should happen is that the market for securities should control the interest rate. That way, millions of people can
vote with their wallets as to whether they want to buy treasuries or not. A computer can be set up to make any decisions
now being made by the FED. The voters can vote on the criteria used by the computer system. A computer like IBM
Watson can look at so many factors and so much history that is probably the best (or soon could learn to be such) at
setting policy. Consider the history as culture and economics become more and more complex. It was shown recently
that the leaders of the major European banks do NOT understand some of the fundamental properties of the monetary
system. They thought that it would be good to outlaw Credit Default Swaps before that American Scheme comes to
Europe. The fact is that it has been in Europe for many years. We now have a complex world economy which is too
complex for any single human being to control successfully.
Bottom line: 1997 a computer became Chess champion.
2011, a computer became trivia champion by winning at Jeopardy!
2015, the plan is to have a version of Watson which knows more medical facts than any human doctor.
2020, computers should be used to solve complex social and economic problems such as the current European crisis.
Here is how I propose it would work.
Hold a contest for the best economic models of the world economy. Test these models by giving them facts and asking
them to predict what will happen in real-time.
Make sure that the winning computer isn't simply lucky. Do this by demanding that it predict many details that should
unfold in time.
Give more and more authority and credibility to the computer as time goes on.
Next
The rational thing would be to simulate the economy of the world and find out what each nation's policies should be to
maximize the economic outcome.
Problem is in determining from whose perspective that optimization should be viewed.
The Bank of England still acts as the banker for Her Majesty's Government. The Bank was privately owned and
operated from its foundation in 1694. It was subordinated to the Treasury after 1931 in making policy and was
nationalised in 1946. In 1998, when the Labor Party was in control of the government, it became an independent public
organisation, wholly owned by the Treasury Solicitor on behalf of the Government, with independence in setting
monetary policy. In the United States, the Democrats want to make the FED to be more under control of the
government. It didn't work in England and was so harmful that it was made independent again under the Labor party.
What should happen is that the market for securities should control the interest rate. That way, millions of people can
vote with their wallets as to whether they want to buy treasuries or not. A computer can be set up to make any decisions
now being made by the FED. The voters can vote on the criteria used by the computer system. A computer like IBM
Watson can look at so many factors and so much history that is probably the best (or soon could learn to be such) at
setting policy. Consider the history as culture and economics become more and more complex. It was shown recently
that the leaders of the major European banks do NOT understand some of the fundamental properties of the monetary
system. They thought that it would be good to outlaw Credit Default Swaps before that American Scheme comes to
Europe. The fact is that it has been in Europe for many years. We now have a complex world economy which is too
complex for any single human being to control successfully.
Bottom line: 1997 a computer became Chess champion.
2011, a computer became trivia champion by winning at Jeopardy!
2015, the plan is to have a version of Watson which knows more medical facts than any human doctor.
2020, computers should be used to solve complex social and economic problems such as the current European crisis.
Here is how I propose it would work.
Hold a contest for the best economic models of the world economy. Test these models by giving them facts and asking
them to predict what will happen in real-time.
Make sure that the winning computer isn't simply lucky. Do this by demanding that it predict many details that should
unfold in time.
Give more and more authority and credibility to the computer as time goes on.
Next
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