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Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting
Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than
others. I've met folks who channel the future, and it's always wondrous and bewildering.
Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link below) is the summary (alas, I am
way way behind on listening or watching them).
A few things here I'd like to throw at the Singularity Techno-Optomists.
Rules bandied about in Saffo's talk:
Wild cards sensitize us to surprise.
Change is never linear. (one discontinuity can derail your favourite singular optimism)
Look for indicators- things that don’t fit.
Look back twice as far.
Cherish failure.
Be indifferent.
Assume you are wrong. And forecast often.
Embrace uncertainty.
Go listen to it.
Liunk: Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective forecasting”:
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is
not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the
edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project
further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
http://cognections.typepad.com/lifeblog/2008/01/paul-saffo-on-t.html
http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-
effective-forecasting/
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Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting”
January 14th, 02008 by Stewart Brand
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is
not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the
edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project
further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
Rule: Wild cards sensitize us to surprise, and they push the edges of the cone out further.
You can call weird imaginings a wild card and not be ridiculed. Science fiction is brilliant at
this, and often predictive, because it plants idea bombs in teenagers which they make real
15 years later.
Rule: Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S”
curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term
change. “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.”
“Inflection points are tiptoeing past us all the time.” He saw one at the DARPA Grand
Challenge race for robot cars in the Mojave Desert in 2004 and 2005. In 2004 no cars
finished the race, and only four got off the starting line. In 2005, all 23 cars started and
five finished.
Rule: Look for indicators- things that don’t fit. At the same time the robot cars were
triumphing in the desert, 108 human-driven cars piled into one another in the fog on a
nearby freeway. A survey of owners of Roomba robot vacuum cleaners showed that 2/3 of
owners give the machine a personal name, and 1/3 take it with them on vacations.
Rule: Look back twice as far. Every decade lately there’s a new technology that sets the
landscape. In the 1980s, microprocessors made a processing decade that culminated in
personal computers. In the 1990s it was the laser that made for communication bandwidth
and an access decade culminating in the World Wide Web. In the 2000s cheap sensors are
making an interaction decade culminating in a robot takeoff. The Web will soon be made
largely of machines communicating with each other.
Rule: Cherish failure. Preferably other people’s. We fail our way into the future. Silicon
Valley is brilliant at this. Since new technologies take 20 years to have an overnight
success, for an easy win look for a field that has been failing for 20 years and build on that.
Rule: Be indifferent. Don’t confuse the desired with the likely. Christian end-time
enthusiasts have been wrong for 2,000 years.
Rule: Assume you are wrong. And forecast often.
Rule: Embrace uncertainty.
Saffo ended with a photo he took of a jar by the cash register in a coffee shop in San
Francisco. The handwritten note on the jar read, “If you fear change, leave it in here.”
PS… You can find different rules and a more strait-laced presentation by Saffo in his
recent Harvard Business Review article, “Six Rules for Effective Forecasting,” here.
Share This ▼
This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm and is filed under
Seminars. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can
leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
11 Responses to “Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting””
Anne Truitt Zelenka » links for 2008-01-15 Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 1:29 am
[…] Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective forecas… 6 rules for forecasting including “Change is never linear. Our
expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely
overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.” (tags: predictions
forecasting change rules future) […]
Daniel O'Donnell Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also
took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is
reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to
agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he’
s wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting - and sometimes he (and we) will
get it right. Stewart’s summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are
up soon so I can review the talk.
Lifeblog Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting…
Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than
others. I’ve met folks who channel the future, and it’s always wondrous and bewildering.
Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link…
Lifeblog Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 5:35 am
Elated with Saffo seminar…
I finally listened to the Saffo’s Long Now talk on forecasting. What really excited me is
that he said some things that I’ve been thinking about. I wonder if I picked it up from the
same folks he’s picked it…
Danny Bloom Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of “polar cities” in the far
distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30
generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although
most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term “polar
cities” and see for yourself, or see the images here:
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com
Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea “a potent warning rather than a hopeful
future”. He’s right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered
polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424?
Paul Saffo: Forecasting must embrace uncertainty at Resilience Science Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:23 am
[…] Paul Saffo recently gave a talk “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective
forecasting” at the Long Now foundation. The talk (mp3) and Stewart Brand’s summary are
online on the Long […]
Paula Kaye Says:
July 12th, 2008 at 9:57 am
STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be
hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven’t seen that name in a while. Just wanted
you know that it’s good to see that byline again–and in such good company!
P.
Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”, Longnow
Foundation, 2008/01/14 « Media Download Queue –> Coevolving Innovations Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
[…] The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective … […]
The Art of Intelligence « Profitable Readings Says:
November 18th, 2008 at 6:14 am
[…] knowledge. Technologist and Forecaster Paul Saffo makes this argument in the Long
Now presentation “Embracing Uncertainty” as did economist Friedrich Hayek whose
following quote appeared in the book Crowdsourcing.” […]
Forecasting The Future - Some Rules! « Steps & Leaps Says:
February 9th, 2009 at 5:22 am
[…] a nice summary of a talk that Paul Saffo gave at The Long Now Foundation on
“Embracing Uncertainty - The Secret To Effective Forecasting” (audio version of talk also
available and video is here). “Reflecting on his 25 years as a […]
PM Hut Says:
February 9th, 2009 at 11:42 am
I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: “The only thing that is certain is
change” . As I’m a project manager and I run a project management website ( PM Hut) I
have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager’s life a living
nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of
a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden.
Your point that “Change is never linear” is excellent.
Leave a Reply
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Mail (will not be published) (required)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Fostering Long-term Responsibility
est. 01996. Home About Contact ^ Top of Page Close
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Your Address:
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Next
Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than
others. I've met folks who channel the future, and it's always wondrous and bewildering.
Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link below) is the summary (alas, I am
way way behind on listening or watching them).
A few things here I'd like to throw at the Singularity Techno-Optomists.
Rules bandied about in Saffo's talk:
Wild cards sensitize us to surprise.
Change is never linear. (one discontinuity can derail your favourite singular optimism)
Look for indicators- things that don’t fit.
Look back twice as far.
Cherish failure.
Be indifferent.
Assume you are wrong. And forecast often.
Embrace uncertainty.
Go listen to it.
Liunk: Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective forecasting”:
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is
not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the
edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project
further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
http://cognections.typepad.com/lifeblog/2008/01/paul-saffo-on-t.html
http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-
effective-forecasting/
Home About Projects Blog Seminars Membership Store People Contact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
« Long Term PhilanthropyThe century palm »
Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting”
January 14th, 02008 by Stewart Brand
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is
not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the
edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project
further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
Rule: Wild cards sensitize us to surprise, and they push the edges of the cone out further.
You can call weird imaginings a wild card and not be ridiculed. Science fiction is brilliant at
this, and often predictive, because it plants idea bombs in teenagers which they make real
15 years later.
Rule: Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S”
curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term
change. “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.”
“Inflection points are tiptoeing past us all the time.” He saw one at the DARPA Grand
Challenge race for robot cars in the Mojave Desert in 2004 and 2005. In 2004 no cars
finished the race, and only four got off the starting line. In 2005, all 23 cars started and
five finished.
Rule: Look for indicators- things that don’t fit. At the same time the robot cars were
triumphing in the desert, 108 human-driven cars piled into one another in the fog on a
nearby freeway. A survey of owners of Roomba robot vacuum cleaners showed that 2/3 of
owners give the machine a personal name, and 1/3 take it with them on vacations.
Rule: Look back twice as far. Every decade lately there’s a new technology that sets the
landscape. In the 1980s, microprocessors made a processing decade that culminated in
personal computers. In the 1990s it was the laser that made for communication bandwidth
and an access decade culminating in the World Wide Web. In the 2000s cheap sensors are
making an interaction decade culminating in a robot takeoff. The Web will soon be made
largely of machines communicating with each other.
Rule: Cherish failure. Preferably other people’s. We fail our way into the future. Silicon
Valley is brilliant at this. Since new technologies take 20 years to have an overnight
success, for an easy win look for a field that has been failing for 20 years and build on that.
Rule: Be indifferent. Don’t confuse the desired with the likely. Christian end-time
enthusiasts have been wrong for 2,000 years.
Rule: Assume you are wrong. And forecast often.
Rule: Embrace uncertainty.
Saffo ended with a photo he took of a jar by the cash register in a coffee shop in San
Francisco. The handwritten note on the jar read, “If you fear change, leave it in here.”
PS… You can find different rules and a more strait-laced presentation by Saffo in his
recent Harvard Business Review article, “Six Rules for Effective Forecasting,” here.
Share This ▼
This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm and is filed under
Seminars. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can
leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
11 Responses to “Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting””
Anne Truitt Zelenka » links for 2008-01-15 Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 1:29 am
[…] Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective forecas… 6 rules for forecasting including “Change is never linear. Our
expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely
overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.” (tags: predictions
forecasting change rules future) […]
Daniel O'Donnell Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also
took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is
reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to
agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he’
s wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting - and sometimes he (and we) will
get it right. Stewart’s summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are
up soon so I can review the talk.
Lifeblog Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting…
Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than
others. I’ve met folks who channel the future, and it’s always wondrous and bewildering.
Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link…
Lifeblog Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 5:35 am
Elated with Saffo seminar…
I finally listened to the Saffo’s Long Now talk on forecasting. What really excited me is
that he said some things that I’ve been thinking about. I wonder if I picked it up from the
same folks he’s picked it…
Danny Bloom Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of “polar cities” in the far
distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30
generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although
most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term “polar
cities” and see for yourself, or see the images here:
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com
Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea “a potent warning rather than a hopeful
future”. He’s right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered
polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424?
Paul Saffo: Forecasting must embrace uncertainty at Resilience Science Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 9:23 am
[…] Paul Saffo recently gave a talk “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective
forecasting” at the Long Now foundation. The talk (mp3) and Stewart Brand’s summary are
online on the Long […]
Paula Kaye Says:
July 12th, 2008 at 9:57 am
STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be
hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven’t seen that name in a while. Just wanted
you know that it’s good to see that byline again–and in such good company!
P.
Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”, Longnow
Foundation, 2008/01/14 « Media Download Queue –> Coevolving Innovations Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
[…] The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to
effective … […]
The Art of Intelligence « Profitable Readings Says:
November 18th, 2008 at 6:14 am
[…] knowledge. Technologist and Forecaster Paul Saffo makes this argument in the Long
Now presentation “Embracing Uncertainty” as did economist Friedrich Hayek whose
following quote appeared in the book Crowdsourcing.” […]
Forecasting The Future - Some Rules! « Steps & Leaps Says:
February 9th, 2009 at 5:22 am
[…] a nice summary of a talk that Paul Saffo gave at The Long Now Foundation on
“Embracing Uncertainty - The Secret To Effective Forecasting” (audio version of talk also
available and video is here). “Reflecting on his 25 years as a […]
PM Hut Says:
February 9th, 2009 at 11:42 am
I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: “The only thing that is certain is
change” . As I’m a project manager and I run a project management website ( PM Hut) I
have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager’s life a living
nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of
a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden.
Your point that “Change is never linear” is excellent.
Leave a Reply
Name (required)
Mail (will not be published) (required)
Website
« Long Term PhilanthropyThe century palm »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Long Now Foundation
Fostering Long-term Responsibility
est. 01996. Home About Contact ^ Top of Page Close
Social Web E-mail del.icio.us Digg Furl Netscape Yahoo! My Web StumbleUpon Google
Bookmarks Technorati BlinkList Newsvine ma.gnolia reddit Windows Live Tailrank E-mail It
To Address:
Your Name:
Your Address:
Socialized through Gregarious 39
Next