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Towards a robotic society in 2020?
Posted by Roland Piquepaille @ 9:28 am December 6th, 2008
Spanish researchers have published a study about the potential future impact of robots on society.
They think that the potentially widening gap between the first and third worlds will cause a technological
imbalance over the next 12 years. One of the researchers said that ‘just as we depend upon mobile
phones and cars in our daily lives today, the next 15 years will see mass hybridization between humans
and robots.’ So they predict that robots will be around — and inside — us.
This research project has been led by António López Peláez of the Spain’s National Distance Learning
University (UNED) and by Dimitris Kyriakou of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS),
one of the seven scientific institutes of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) located
in Seville, Spain.
The two researchers interviewed international experts for their study. “All agreed on 2020 as a
technological inflection point, because by then robots “will be able to see, act, speak, manage natural
language and have intelligence, and our relationship with them will have become more constant and
commonplace”, said López Peláez. This will follow a revolution in robotics after which they will no longer
be sophisticated machines, but tools to be used on a daily basis, helping us with a large number of work
and social activities.”
So what will robots do for us in 2020? “Automation currently exists in areas such as water management
or unmanned aircraft that fly and shoot missiles, but whole new areas of robot use will open up in future.
One such use will be in a medical context, as exoskeletons to help disabled people move, helping to
make them less dependent on others. Even more significant will be the insertion of robots into our
bodies, such as intelligent implants in the brain, which will improve our rational thought, and nanorobots
to be released into the blood to clean our arteries. Another important role will be the replacement of
people working in the areas of security, surveillance or defence. According to Professor López Peláez, it
is predicted that 40% of armies will be automated with robot soldiers by 2020 ‘just as a car factory is
today, which will result in less human deaths during violent conflicts.’”
And as it was predicted several decades ago, the robots of 2020 will be ‘intelligent.’ “The most striking
feature of this technological revolution are social robots, machines with artificial intelligence, and with
which we will have emotional and even intimate interactions. ‘A robot might be a more effective partner
and a better person than the humans we actually have in our immediate lives: just as you can see dog
owners talking to their pets today, soon we will be talking to robots,’ says López Peláez — to such an
extent that sexual robots are currently being designed to carry out pleasurable personal interactions.
These will be equipped with the required sensorial abilities, such as touch. ‘Since they will be used as
objects, sexual robots may be able to act as a future substitute for prostitution or pornography.’”
Of course, this is old news. Please read a 2007 post, “Will you one day marry a robot?” for example.
This research work has been published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, an Elsevier
journal, under the name “Robots, genes, and bytes: technology development and social changes
towards the year 2020″ (Volume 75, Issue 8, Pages 1176-1201, October 2008).
The abstract. “Scientific and technological policy has become a key activity in contemporary societies. In
this context we present different projections about the evolution of science and technology in the area of
robotics and advanced automation, which in turn shapes the new possibilities and risks emerging in this
area in the future. This goes hand-in-hand with an analysis of the interaction of such trajectories with
the social context from which they emanate. This interaction reinforces the need for establishing the
probable sequence of technological innovation; analysing the impacts on economy and society; and
providing qualified information for decision-making, both in policy and business. In this article, we
present the results of the prospective research carried out in the field of robotics and advanced
automation, paying special attention to the transformation trends of organizations, and the integration of
robots in daily life and leisure, and underscoring potential repercussions which may deserve more
attention and further research.”
Sources: Scientific Information and News Service (Servicio de Información y Noticias Científicas - SINC)
news release, December 5, 2008; and various websites
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Posted by Roland Piquepaille @ 9:28 am December 6th, 2008
Spanish researchers have published a study about the potential future impact of robots on society.
They think that the potentially widening gap between the first and third worlds will cause a technological
imbalance over the next 12 years. One of the researchers said that ‘just as we depend upon mobile
phones and cars in our daily lives today, the next 15 years will see mass hybridization between humans
and robots.’ So they predict that robots will be around — and inside — us.
This research project has been led by António López Peláez of the Spain’s National Distance Learning
University (UNED) and by Dimitris Kyriakou of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS),
one of the seven scientific institutes of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) located
in Seville, Spain.
The two researchers interviewed international experts for their study. “All agreed on 2020 as a
technological inflection point, because by then robots “will be able to see, act, speak, manage natural
language and have intelligence, and our relationship with them will have become more constant and
commonplace”, said López Peláez. This will follow a revolution in robotics after which they will no longer
be sophisticated machines, but tools to be used on a daily basis, helping us with a large number of work
and social activities.”
So what will robots do for us in 2020? “Automation currently exists in areas such as water management
or unmanned aircraft that fly and shoot missiles, but whole new areas of robot use will open up in future.
One such use will be in a medical context, as exoskeletons to help disabled people move, helping to
make them less dependent on others. Even more significant will be the insertion of robots into our
bodies, such as intelligent implants in the brain, which will improve our rational thought, and nanorobots
to be released into the blood to clean our arteries. Another important role will be the replacement of
people working in the areas of security, surveillance or defence. According to Professor López Peláez, it
is predicted that 40% of armies will be automated with robot soldiers by 2020 ‘just as a car factory is
today, which will result in less human deaths during violent conflicts.’”
And as it was predicted several decades ago, the robots of 2020 will be ‘intelligent.’ “The most striking
feature of this technological revolution are social robots, machines with artificial intelligence, and with
which we will have emotional and even intimate interactions. ‘A robot might be a more effective partner
and a better person than the humans we actually have in our immediate lives: just as you can see dog
owners talking to their pets today, soon we will be talking to robots,’ says López Peláez — to such an
extent that sexual robots are currently being designed to carry out pleasurable personal interactions.
These will be equipped with the required sensorial abilities, such as touch. ‘Since they will be used as
objects, sexual robots may be able to act as a future substitute for prostitution or pornography.’”
Of course, this is old news. Please read a 2007 post, “Will you one day marry a robot?” for example.
This research work has been published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, an Elsevier
journal, under the name “Robots, genes, and bytes: technology development and social changes
towards the year 2020″ (Volume 75, Issue 8, Pages 1176-1201, October 2008).
The abstract. “Scientific and technological policy has become a key activity in contemporary societies. In
this context we present different projections about the evolution of science and technology in the area of
robotics and advanced automation, which in turn shapes the new possibilities and risks emerging in this
area in the future. This goes hand-in-hand with an analysis of the interaction of such trajectories with
the social context from which they emanate. This interaction reinforces the need for establishing the
probable sequence of technological innovation; analysing the impacts on economy and society; and
providing qualified information for decision-making, both in policy and business. In this article, we
present the results of the prospective research carried out in the field of robotics and advanced
automation, paying special attention to the transformation trends of organizations, and the integration of
robots in daily life and leisure, and underscoring potential repercussions which may deserve more
attention and further research.”
Sources: Scientific Information and News Service (Servicio de Información y Noticias Científicas - SINC)
news release, December 5, 2008; and various websites
Next