Moravec's graph with added points
Here is presented a modified version of Moravec's graph to add more recently available computers and to clarify which area
corresponds to MIPS per $1000 and which area corresponds to MIPS. If the graph's projections were correct and if we had the
software available today, we would be able purchase a computer to simulate the human brain in 2010 for $1000.
Notice that if we could perform at 10^3 in 2000 and will make it to 10^9 by the end of 2010, then we can project that a rate of
imporvement of at least 1 million times (10^6x) per decade is now in effect. This should accellerate as we continue to use more
intelligent robots to help us design more intelligent robots.
I have updated the left hand part of the graph by adding the black dots. These points were determined by looking up the MIPS
ratings on the latest computers on Wikipedia.
As to the right-hand side of the slide, my question was always, "Why doesn't Hans Moravec update his Evolution Slide?" Perhaps it
is because the estimate for how many Millions of Instructions Per Second (MIPS) would be needed to simulate the human brain
seems to have been off by a factor of between 1000 and 10,000,000. This is still a matter of debate. Marvin Minsky thinks we
already have enough computer power to simulate a human brain now, others think it will not happen until 2050.
The next page modifies Moravec's chart by moving the requirement to simulate the human brain to a thousand times more than
Moravec placed it.