RFID tags.
When will RFID tags become inexpensive enough to use on products costing $1.00 or more? I met
one fellow who was working on printing transistors on cardboard or paper using a standard printing
press. He seems to be about 3 years away from success. Wal-Mart has already specified that the
current RFID tag design be applied to cartons of products. At some point, the technology will
certainly be there given current progress. When warehouses can select products from the shelves
without any human intervention, this will eliminate a certain small number of jobs. But when robots
with Segway style wheels are standing in the isles at 2 AM restocking the shelves, this will have an
impact on a significant percentage of the 1.3 million Wal-Mart workers.
We should consider the shrinkage due to pilfering by human restockers that should be avoided by the
RFID tags. In addition, the RFID tags might be printed on part of the box which is overlapped upon
when it is glued so that it would be very difficult for a shopper to disable the tag. The bar code
would also be present for backward compatibility. If this were so, then the product would not be
able to be stolen by shoppers without some difficulty such as the use of an RF shield. It might be
possible to detect such a shield and search the patron who has one. If shrinkage from stockers and
customers is 5% and it is reduced to 1% by the use of RFID tags, then we are only waiting for the 3
cent RFID tag and that is coming.
Let us place the RFID tag as having a 10% market penetration by 2010.
When will RFID tags become inexpensive enough to use on products costing $1.00 or more? I met
one fellow who was working on printing transistors on cardboard or paper using a standard printing
press. He seems to be about 3 years away from success. Wal-Mart has already specified that the
current RFID tag design be applied to cartons of products. At some point, the technology will
certainly be there given current progress. When warehouses can select products from the shelves
without any human intervention, this will eliminate a certain small number of jobs. But when robots
with Segway style wheels are standing in the isles at 2 AM restocking the shelves, this will have an
impact on a significant percentage of the 1.3 million Wal-Mart workers.
We should consider the shrinkage due to pilfering by human restockers that should be avoided by the
RFID tags. In addition, the RFID tags might be printed on part of the box which is overlapped upon
when it is glued so that it would be very difficult for a shopper to disable the tag. The bar code
would also be present for backward compatibility. If this were so, then the product would not be
able to be stolen by shoppers without some difficulty such as the use of an RF shield. It might be
possible to detect such a shield and search the patron who has one. If shrinkage from stockers and
customers is 5% and it is reduced to 1% by the use of RFID tags, then we are only waiting for the 3
cent RFID tag and that is coming.
Let us place the RFID tag as having a 10% market penetration by 2010.
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