Sell Those Stocks Whose Leaders Have Left
Starbucks Schultz left and came back. Meanwhile the stock suffered without him.
Dell, Michael Dell left and came back. Again, the stock suffered without the leader.
Steve Jobs left Apple and came back. The stock suffered without Steve. Steve meanwhile did Pixar and
sold it to Disney.
Bill Gates left and Microsoft stock price has become stagnant.
Now Steve Jobs has left Apple forever.
Nokia has lost its way as has Rim (Blackberry).
Larry Page left the CEO post but now is back as CEO of Google.
Now that Steve Jobs is gone, will Google Android phones dominate the smartphone landscape?
Additional reasons why Apple will become rotten. From a statistical standpoint, a majority of
engineering managers and people in general lack the analytical discipline to think through
new-product development and operational execution. Consequently:
1. Business direction degenerates into pursuit of cliches.
2. Key business decisions are made on trite emotional intuition.
3. Opportunities are approached without astute forward management of risks or technical challenges.
4. Assessment of business conditions becomes a subjective projection of internalized assumptions
leading to perceptions that are out-of-touch with reality.
What sets people like Steve Jobs apart is life-long self-discipline in objective observational skills for
identifying unsatisfied market needs, creativity for filling them and critical thinking skills for sound
operational execution
Are the creative people now going to leave AAPL and form their own companies? Some will, like the
following:
Tony Fadell, the godfather of the iPod (AAPL), moves onto something really useful at his new firm,
Nest Labs: A thermostat whose screen works like an iPod click wheel and which can be controlled
from your phone, tablet, or computer. This puppy can program itself and intimately track your heating
and cooling use to offer up ways to save energy.
Conclusion: Sell Apple long term.
Method: Buy short term calls and sell long term calls against them.
As of 9:30 AM on 10/27/2011 I find that if I use 34.22% volitility on AAPL the implied price of the
JUL 2012 400 CAL is the same as market price. Using that same VOL on the JAN 2014 400 CAL I get a
theoretical value of $83.30 and yet it is trading for $90.12 bid/ask.
Conclusion: Buy the JUL 2012 400 CAL and SEL the JAN 2014 400 CAL for a statistical profit from both
the current overprice on the JAN 2014 and the Lack of Steve Jobs overprice as well which should show
up long term over short term.
Options calculator: http://www.888options.com/resources/covered_call_calculator.jsp
Next
Starbucks Schultz left and came back. Meanwhile the stock suffered without him.
Dell, Michael Dell left and came back. Again, the stock suffered without the leader.
Steve Jobs left Apple and came back. The stock suffered without Steve. Steve meanwhile did Pixar and
sold it to Disney.
Bill Gates left and Microsoft stock price has become stagnant.
Now Steve Jobs has left Apple forever.
Nokia has lost its way as has Rim (Blackberry).
Larry Page left the CEO post but now is back as CEO of Google.
Now that Steve Jobs is gone, will Google Android phones dominate the smartphone landscape?
Additional reasons why Apple will become rotten. From a statistical standpoint, a majority of
engineering managers and people in general lack the analytical discipline to think through
new-product development and operational execution. Consequently:
1. Business direction degenerates into pursuit of cliches.
2. Key business decisions are made on trite emotional intuition.
3. Opportunities are approached without astute forward management of risks or technical challenges.
4. Assessment of business conditions becomes a subjective projection of internalized assumptions
leading to perceptions that are out-of-touch with reality.
What sets people like Steve Jobs apart is life-long self-discipline in objective observational skills for
identifying unsatisfied market needs, creativity for filling them and critical thinking skills for sound
operational execution
Are the creative people now going to leave AAPL and form their own companies? Some will, like the
following:
Tony Fadell, the godfather of the iPod (AAPL), moves onto something really useful at his new firm,
Nest Labs: A thermostat whose screen works like an iPod click wheel and which can be controlled
from your phone, tablet, or computer. This puppy can program itself and intimately track your heating
and cooling use to offer up ways to save energy.
Conclusion: Sell Apple long term.
Method: Buy short term calls and sell long term calls against them.
As of 9:30 AM on 10/27/2011 I find that if I use 34.22% volitility on AAPL the implied price of the
JUL 2012 400 CAL is the same as market price. Using that same VOL on the JAN 2014 400 CAL I get a
theoretical value of $83.30 and yet it is trading for $90.12 bid/ask.
Conclusion: Buy the JUL 2012 400 CAL and SEL the JAN 2014 400 CAL for a statistical profit from both
the current overprice on the JAN 2014 and the Lack of Steve Jobs overprice as well which should show
up long term over short term.
Options calculator: http://www.888options.com/resources/covered_call_calculator.jsp
Next
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