Has it Been Discounted

Y2K had been totally discounted as of December 31, 1999.  The demand for upgraded computers and
software dried up over night because the investments were made to avoid Y2K.  Did you get out of the
high-tech market at that time?  Why not?  Were you wrapped up in the idea that you knew about how Y2K
was going to be a problem?  Didn't you see that everyone had acted to make sure that the problems were
avoided?

On March 9, 2009, Nouriel Roubini had just finished his world-wide tour and told everyone to sell and go
short.  With 9 billion dollars on the sidelines doing nothing but driving up the price of treasury bonds to
ridiculous heights and shorting a down market, where else could things go but up?

Buy TBT to short treasuries and go triple long financials and Nasdaq.

If most people notice that there is an excess of US dollars floating around, they are likely to discount this
perceived inflation by buying gold, oil futures and other commodities.  At some point they will have
discounted the perceived inflation.  

But wait.  The extra money doesn't cause inflation if the
velocity of money remains low.  If few people
understand this economics principle, then won't they 'over compensate' or 'over discount' for inflation?




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