Will Japanese Robots Rule the World by 2020?
By Prabhu Guptara | Thursday, March 16, 2006
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=5084
Will Japanese Robots Rule the World by 2020?
By Prabhu Guptara | Thursday, March 16, 2006
Robotic technology has the potential to enhance human life in numerous ways. However, as
Professor Prabhu Guptara argues, this technology also has the potential to become the
greatest threat to humanity if it falls into the wrong hands. In the second installment of this
two-part series, he offers his recommendations for how to deal with the potential threats
robots may pose to humanity.
Some people accuse me of being over-optimistic about Japan's ability to launch sophisticated
entertainment and personal-service robots by 2015.
So who wants to join me in addressing the challenge posed by robots to the future of
humanity?
Well, I would simply invite them to consider how many cases they can recollect, in the last
50 years, where Japan has missed a nationally-set industrial target.
So I have no doubt that the Japanese will unleash the next generation of sophisticated robots
starting in about 2012. That will mean that the question occupying most people's minds
then will no longer be ecological sustainability.
In my view, the real question for the future of the globe is not sustainability.
More pressing matters
True, the impact of our non-sustainable policies has started affecting us and will gradually
worsen — but it is not going to be catastrophic for humanity as a whole.
Asian tsunamis and Katrina and Rita-type hurricanes notwithstanding, the environment
will probably not degrade rapidly in the next 50 or so years, as far as I can make out.
‘1984’ scenario
The real question is: How will we as a human society adjust to a world with such
sophisticated robots in the next seven to ten years? More precisely, the question is: Who will
own the robots? And will the owners be humanitarians — or despots?
How can we stop owners from misusing robots — for example to attack specific or certain
types of human beings? There is even the possibility of keeping the rest of the world
population in virtual slavery.
That would finally bring about the world of "1984" demonstrating that George Orwell was
only about 30 years off in his estimate — though, of course, he had in mind a different kind
of fascism.
Taking full advantage
No doubt, my concerns will be dismissed by many as mere doom-mongering.
The question facing the world is how to build by transform society in order to most effectively
take advantage of the unparalleled prosperity and freedom from drudgery afforded by robot-
driven production of goods and services.
This will enable every human being to live a more dignified and worthwhile life. Even so,
many people will be totally paralyzed by the question: "What would you really like to do with
your life?" They may well respond: "Can't I just go back to my old job?"
Rising to the challenge
So the rise of robots raises eminent political, spiritual and value-oriented questions.
The frightening thing is that the most able people in the world are largely focused on (a)
making more money for themselves or (b) wrestling with the enormous challenges already
facing humanity today.
I don’t duck the making of money (I do work for one of the world’s largest banks!). Nor do I
duck the mega-challenges of the present, such as corruption in India, or the challenge of
social justice and sustainability worldwide.
However, no one seems to be working on the challenge of robots — and this challenge will
very quickly dwarf all the other challenges facing humanity at present. So who wants to join
me in addressing the challenge posed by robots to the future of humanity?
Safeguarding the future
For starters, I propose the following five measures:
First, global society needs time to digest the fact that these robots have been developed —
and it needs time to agree on suitable socio-economic-political policies and arrangements
to prevent mass-unemployment and political unrest.
How can we prepare for the introduction of this new generation of robots — so that before
they are unleashed commercially, we have sufficient consensus on the following questions?
Survival tax
Second, these policies could include a Robotics Tax on the deployment of such sophisticated
robots.
This tax money should be put into a global fund for formulating and getting public
agreement about possible new models to provide finance for survival and consumption
(including cost-free basic food, shelter and clothing, since these will cost practically nothing
in a robot-driven world economy).
We need to get public agreement for new models of social and political organization.
Preventing redundancy
Third, there could also be a Sophisticated Robot Introduction Tax
This money would go into a fund to re-train the people whose sophisticated jobs are going to
be made redundant by this new generation, and then by subsequent generations, of robots.
Fourth, the sums that I have proposed may well be too small. I have proposed these based
simply on intuition at present.
If economists wish to join me in pursuing more rigorous thinking on the actual tax rate, as
well as on the changes in the global economic, business, monetary and financial system that
will be entailed, that would be excellent.
Gaining public control
At present, most of the fundamental research into robotics is funded by the Japanese and
other governments. However, access to the research results is given only to selected
companies by neat legal arrangements.
Corporations worldwide should be encouraged, on the basis of the research available to them
all, to produce robot-related products and services on a competitive basis.
Curse to humanity
I have not made the above suggestions lightly. Terrible diseases require strong medicine.
The arrival of robots could be the equivalent of a terrible plague — or it could be an
enormous blessing to humanity.
The question facing the world is how to create the necessary legal agreements to make full
use of the resulting unparalleled prosperity and freedom from drudgery.
If we don't consider taking some actions similar to the ones outlined above, then I guarantee
that robots will be a curse to humanity.
On the other hand, if we are willing to take such actions, then robots could be the best thing
that have ever happened, enabling the development of the first genuinely humane society
worldwide.
Japan’s rise to the top
Regretfully, as far as I can see, the world will not take either my recommendations or my
warnings seriously. So what will be the result? Japanese robots, launched from 2010 at the
latest, will rapidly displace most human jobs in both the developed and developing worlds.
They will also replace the kinds of robotic machinery that is being installed in the "latest"
factories, for example in China.
Even without the cultural reformation that is otherwise necessary, Japan will therefore
finally break through its stagnation, and move from being the world's second-largest
economy — a position it has held for over 30 years — to becoming the world's leading
economic power by 2020 at the latest.
That’s the benefit of being the master inventor of all these robots.
By Prabhu Guptara | Thursday, March 16, 2006
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=5084
Will Japanese Robots Rule the World by 2020?
By Prabhu Guptara | Thursday, March 16, 2006
Robotic technology has the potential to enhance human life in numerous ways. However, as
Professor Prabhu Guptara argues, this technology also has the potential to become the
greatest threat to humanity if it falls into the wrong hands. In the second installment of this
two-part series, he offers his recommendations for how to deal with the potential threats
robots may pose to humanity.
Some people accuse me of being over-optimistic about Japan's ability to launch sophisticated
entertainment and personal-service robots by 2015.
So who wants to join me in addressing the challenge posed by robots to the future of
humanity?
Well, I would simply invite them to consider how many cases they can recollect, in the last
50 years, where Japan has missed a nationally-set industrial target.
So I have no doubt that the Japanese will unleash the next generation of sophisticated robots
starting in about 2012. That will mean that the question occupying most people's minds
then will no longer be ecological sustainability.
In my view, the real question for the future of the globe is not sustainability.
More pressing matters
True, the impact of our non-sustainable policies has started affecting us and will gradually
worsen — but it is not going to be catastrophic for humanity as a whole.
Asian tsunamis and Katrina and Rita-type hurricanes notwithstanding, the environment
will probably not degrade rapidly in the next 50 or so years, as far as I can make out.
‘1984’ scenario
The real question is: How will we as a human society adjust to a world with such
sophisticated robots in the next seven to ten years? More precisely, the question is: Who will
own the robots? And will the owners be humanitarians — or despots?
How can we stop owners from misusing robots — for example to attack specific or certain
types of human beings? There is even the possibility of keeping the rest of the world
population in virtual slavery.
That would finally bring about the world of "1984" demonstrating that George Orwell was
only about 30 years off in his estimate — though, of course, he had in mind a different kind
of fascism.
Taking full advantage
No doubt, my concerns will be dismissed by many as mere doom-mongering.
The question facing the world is how to build by transform society in order to most effectively
take advantage of the unparalleled prosperity and freedom from drudgery afforded by robot-
driven production of goods and services.
This will enable every human being to live a more dignified and worthwhile life. Even so,
many people will be totally paralyzed by the question: "What would you really like to do with
your life?" They may well respond: "Can't I just go back to my old job?"
Rising to the challenge
So the rise of robots raises eminent political, spiritual and value-oriented questions.
The frightening thing is that the most able people in the world are largely focused on (a)
making more money for themselves or (b) wrestling with the enormous challenges already
facing humanity today.
I don’t duck the making of money (I do work for one of the world’s largest banks!). Nor do I
duck the mega-challenges of the present, such as corruption in India, or the challenge of
social justice and sustainability worldwide.
However, no one seems to be working on the challenge of robots — and this challenge will
very quickly dwarf all the other challenges facing humanity at present. So who wants to join
me in addressing the challenge posed by robots to the future of humanity?
Safeguarding the future
For starters, I propose the following five measures:
First, global society needs time to digest the fact that these robots have been developed —
and it needs time to agree on suitable socio-economic-political policies and arrangements
to prevent mass-unemployment and political unrest.
How can we prepare for the introduction of this new generation of robots — so that before
they are unleashed commercially, we have sufficient consensus on the following questions?
Survival tax
Second, these policies could include a Robotics Tax on the deployment of such sophisticated
robots.
This tax money should be put into a global fund for formulating and getting public
agreement about possible new models to provide finance for survival and consumption
(including cost-free basic food, shelter and clothing, since these will cost practically nothing
in a robot-driven world economy).
We need to get public agreement for new models of social and political organization.
Preventing redundancy
Third, there could also be a Sophisticated Robot Introduction Tax
This money would go into a fund to re-train the people whose sophisticated jobs are going to
be made redundant by this new generation, and then by subsequent generations, of robots.
Fourth, the sums that I have proposed may well be too small. I have proposed these based
simply on intuition at present.
If economists wish to join me in pursuing more rigorous thinking on the actual tax rate, as
well as on the changes in the global economic, business, monetary and financial system that
will be entailed, that would be excellent.
Gaining public control
At present, most of the fundamental research into robotics is funded by the Japanese and
other governments. However, access to the research results is given only to selected
companies by neat legal arrangements.
Corporations worldwide should be encouraged, on the basis of the research available to them
all, to produce robot-related products and services on a competitive basis.
Curse to humanity
I have not made the above suggestions lightly. Terrible diseases require strong medicine.
The arrival of robots could be the equivalent of a terrible plague — or it could be an
enormous blessing to humanity.
The question facing the world is how to create the necessary legal agreements to make full
use of the resulting unparalleled prosperity and freedom from drudgery.
If we don't consider taking some actions similar to the ones outlined above, then I guarantee
that robots will be a curse to humanity.
On the other hand, if we are willing to take such actions, then robots could be the best thing
that have ever happened, enabling the development of the first genuinely humane society
worldwide.
Japan’s rise to the top
Regretfully, as far as I can see, the world will not take either my recommendations or my
warnings seriously. So what will be the result? Japanese robots, launched from 2010 at the
latest, will rapidly displace most human jobs in both the developed and developing worlds.
They will also replace the kinds of robotic machinery that is being installed in the "latest"
factories, for example in China.
Even without the cultural reformation that is otherwise necessary, Japan will therefore
finally break through its stagnation, and move from being the world's second-largest
economy — a position it has held for over 30 years — to becoming the world's leading
economic power by 2020 at the latest.
That’s the benefit of being the master inventor of all these robots.
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