When will Machines have more intelligence than humans?
Common estimates of technological progress have the ability of integrated circuits approximately
doubling every year. This yields an improvement of about 1000 every ten years. As of mid 2007, IBM's
Almaden Research center has succeeded in creating an approximate mouse brain which thinks 6 times
slower than an actual mouse. At the rate of progress of 1000 per decade, this would mean that we
would have a supercomputer that can emulate a human brain (3500 times as complex) by the year
2022. Ray Kurzweil esitmated that we would have hardware for emulating the human brain by 2020 and
it would cost only US$1000 by then. (See The Singularity is Near p. 127)
Also in the same book, Kurzweil states on page 494 that "We achieve one human brain capability (10^16
cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023"
Which scenario is correct?
Scenbot
Blue Brain: www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7470
The “Blue Brain” project, a collaboration between IBM and a Swiss university team, will involve building a
custom-made supercomputer based on IBM’s Blue Gene design.
The hope is that the virtual brain will help shed light on some aspects of human cognition, such as
perception, memory and perhaps even consciousness.
Man-Made Brain: www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2147452,00.asp
It could be the most ambitious computer science project of all time. At IBM's Almaden Research Center,
just south of South Francisco, Dharmendra Modha and his team are chasing the holy grail of artificial
intelligence. They aren't looking for ways of mimicking the human brain, they're looking to build one—
neuron by neuron, synapse by synapse.
Common estimates of technological progress have the ability of integrated circuits approximately
doubling every year. This yields an improvement of about 1000 every ten years. As of mid 2007, IBM's
Almaden Research center has succeeded in creating an approximate mouse brain which thinks 6 times
slower than an actual mouse. At the rate of progress of 1000 per decade, this would mean that we
would have a supercomputer that can emulate a human brain (3500 times as complex) by the year
2022. Ray Kurzweil esitmated that we would have hardware for emulating the human brain by 2020 and
it would cost only US$1000 by then. (See The Singularity is Near p. 127)
Also in the same book, Kurzweil states on page 494 that "We achieve one human brain capability (10^16
cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023"
Which scenario is correct?
Scenbot
Blue Brain: www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7470
The “Blue Brain” project, a collaboration between IBM and a Swiss university team, will involve building a
custom-made supercomputer based on IBM’s Blue Gene design.
The hope is that the virtual brain will help shed light on some aspects of human cognition, such as
perception, memory and perhaps even consciousness.
Man-Made Brain: www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2147452,00.asp
It could be the most ambitious computer science project of all time. At IBM's Almaden Research Center,
just south of South Francisco, Dharmendra Modha and his team are chasing the holy grail of artificial
intelligence. They aren't looking for ways of mimicking the human brain, they're looking to build one—
neuron by neuron, synapse by synapse.
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